is the maori party 'slam-dunked'

John key seems relaxed about this but the slam dunk analogy says a lot really.

From NZH

"Prime Minister John Key believes the Maori Party is more likely than not to support the Government's final proposal to repeal the Foreshore and Seabed Act 2004.

"I wouldn't want to say it is a slam dunk but I think it's better than 50/50."

Better than 50/50? Sure the gnats have tried to make it a no loss situation for them but they have forgotten something and that something is maori.

Let's really cut to the chase.

The maori party was formed to repeal the F&S legislation. Whilst they have been in there, the maori party have achieved some gains but at a very high cost of being seen as being the lapdogs of the gnats. The Iwi Leaders group which represent 100 iwi have rejected the government proposal of this bogus - "no one owns the land" line. The maori party and the iwi Leaders Group do not represent all maori.

If the maori party oppose the Iwi leaders Group then there will be tears and bloodshed for all parties. If the maori party support the iwi leaders group then the maori party may leave the government benches and initiatives like whanau ora may not even get started.

The maori party have some very big decisions to make. They cannot survive without the support of the Iwi leaders Group.

The maori party have to advocate for maori aspirations - the maori party have to support the Iwi Leaders Group - no other course of action is correct.

Good post by marty g at The Standard called high noon on the foreshore

And a wonderful outline of the various threads of concern around this issue from Lew at Kiwipolitico called 'between the Devil and the deep blue sea'