whose left?

The dust is settling. Mana took a body blow by losing Hone from Parliament but the Mana Movement is still intact, and still fighting against inequality and imo will rise again, better, stronger and more politically astute. The kaupapa has not changed, the will to make change has not wilted nor will it because Mana activists live the reality of inequality every day along with the people.

Mana contested Northland and Rueben Taipari Porter didn't get many votes as expected but by fielding a candidate Mana showed they are still alive and kicking - and still have a great sense of humour - go here to read Rueben's thoughts.

With my stunning result of 55 votes, beaten even by the LegalizeCannab1s party, you would think that I would crawl under a rock andhide…But after studying the result figures I didn’t do too bad. FocusNorthland and the other candidates chose to vote strategically whileNational and Labour candidates got thrashed! Actually as the firstMana candidate to ever stand in any Northland General Election, Inever lost any majority so actually I came in 2nd to HonourableWinston Peters (haha that’s hilarious, but reality is what you make ofit ps phone calls are still coming in so who knows what goodies I canget for us aye?) and my trophy wall is filling up… butcongratulations to Winston, he ran an amazing campaign, it was aprivilege to participate in that historical election and watch himwork. I was watching very closely…

The win by Winston affects Mana but really only indirectly. The Mana Movement and NZF are after different voters and that is very good. The win by Winston does affect Labour and the Greens in the way I described in the last two posts and that affects the left including the Mana Movement. It is going to be interesting watching the developments. Winston has already said 

Winston Peters says he would support mining in Northland if the region benefited from at least 25% of the royalties.

sadly he is old school, focused on money and economics - I tend to agree with Haami on this one too

"He’s been a constant critic of Maori issues and of Maori communities and Maori organisations for decades now, so I wouldn't put him in the Maori MP category, he may have Maori ancestry. And also his party is the party that tried to introduce legislation to remove all references to the Treaty of Waitangi from New Zealand legislation so I don't think it's true to say he represents in any shape or form a Maori perspective," he says.

 Yep the Mana Movement and NZF are polls apart in so many ways.

the stone in Winston

The Greens made a good choice in not standing a candidate in the Northland by-election but the win from Winston and NZF is not good news for them.

I like the Green Party and I'd be happy if they were dominant in Parliament but they aren't and they have some major issues to sort out notwithstanding Winston's win. They have to elect a new co-leader and that is a big one. Russel Norman is a very effective co leader - I have had issues with some of what he has said in the past but he does have gravitas and he speaks with authority. He can and does take the fight directly to National and he can look them in the eye with disdain whilst asking the hard questions. He will be very hard to replace and his replacement will have a very big job on their hands.

The Greens have a dilemma in that they have an eternal internal battle about what their kaupapa is. Yes the environment but social policy and economic policy are currently welded in there to. Some want them to concentrate on the environment and be available to work with both Labour and National - this would make them palatable to the 'middle' and dispel the meme that they are kooky, and others want a broad left approach to the issues of social and economic policy so that they remain true to their traditional constituency. The last election result where they at best held their ground provides reinforcement for both ideals and I don't know the answers or what they should do to be honest. I'm not sure what will move the balance and create momentum for a bigger presence in Parliament. You'd think that public self interest with the looming global issue of the effects of climate change and peak oil would guarantee votes for them but with the clamor of voices saying it's 'business as usual' shows that the basic drive for self preservation isn't being felt. Will it take a calamity, a disaster to move people? Probably, but by then it will be too late.

If NZF and Winston goes head to head with labour and National for the middle movable votes and achieves success then the Greens have a big problem electorally. NZF will cut the Greens out. If they become dominant they will cut them out directly, if, after the war of attrition, Labour retains it's position as the big 'left' party they will need the Greens but on their terms not the Greens terms and history has shown that Labour and the Greens aren't the buddy/buddy team that they could be. For the Greens to have influence they must get the votes and a 4 way competition for the 'middle' isn't going to give them those votes. The 'middle ' is not the solution, the 'middle' is the problem.

So big issues for the Greens that I hope they can resolve and become the force they need to be - the election of Winston Peters in Northland is not good for the Greens, not even slightly.

the win in winston

Unintended consequences has been a concept on my mind recently - some thoughts on the recent by-election in Northland.

The election of Winston Peters in Northland will have unintended negative consequences for the left I think. The left as a whole and the individual parts of the left and I'll start with Labour.

As I've mentioned before I think the way Labour went about the Northland by-election was a mistake. The number of times I heard Labour people say - we can't win, we won't win, this un winnable - was depressing. Whether it was true or not is beyond the point - don't forget the big man key said Winston could and would never win - yet he did.

Okay let's assume that Labour could and never would win - what to do? Yes one option is to help Winston win with the view that giving National a 'bloody nose' is valuable because it will erode the win-meme attached to Key and Joyce and lead the way to a victory for Labour next election - that is certainly the line being used and now that Winston has won it will be interesting to see this meme develop. At this stage Key and Joyce are just pretending that they never lost and that it doesn't matter. Key is spinning it, "well I got it wrong and didn't expect Labour to capitulate and send their people to Winston" and Joyce is going, "yep you win some and lose some, that's politics..." I think their spin will work - it certainly has worked up to now with the almost continuous lying from Key and the almost continuous support he still receives. Time will tell on this one but it by no means certain that the winkeymeme is over or even really dented.

Labour missed a big opportunity to go hard, push Little out there and their candidate, push their policies, push their alternative Government meme - but they decided not to. Sure Prime will get a nice list placing and in 2.5 years is much more likely to get into Parliament. But Little and Labour have snapped a couple of arrows in their quiver - the moral high-ground over deals in Epsom around ACT and the Dunne electorate too. Everytime they go down that 'moral' road, Northland will be chucked in their face - even if it wasn't a deal and not really comparable to what National does - I just don't think the movable voter will care about those details. So Labour are going to have to do more of this 'strategic' dealing and i just can't see it going well for them - mainly because I do think they have more morals than National and as we've seen with Northland - it is difficult to front up and say it like it is especially when innuendo and nudge nudge are easier to do.

Andrew Little will need to be careful with Winston - their can be only one leader of the opposition and although Labour have the numbers, Winston has the ego, experience and wind in his sails after this win. He will get offended very quickly and dish out some smartarse remarks likely to get up Little's nose. The 2 of them are not going to get on I think - sure they'll pretend for a while but before too long the truth will out and that truth is that they are political rivals in a very direct way. Winston's age may be bought in but I would be careful about that because everyone's getting older. I'm calling that Winston will end up disliking Little as much as he does Key and that will be significant if the negotiations need to happen in 2.5 years.

Labour have let a wolf into the henhouse - National have received their bloody nose but they will heal. Labour may not heal from the win of Winston.

choices made

I feel a zeal to begin blogging again but we'll see how we go lol.

Firstly congratulations to Winston Peters and NZF for the Northland win over the forces of the National Party. This really gives fantastic momentum to NZF and bodes well for them for future parliaments. I didn't like the labour campaign from day one - the slight of hand and whispering didn't really do it for me - but it did do it for labour supporters who moved their vote to Winston instead of the Labour candidate. Is this strategic voting? I'd say yes but for NZF not Labour and not the left. I remain unconvinced that Winston Peters and NZF will advance the left, especially the far left where I sit, and if any further convincing of that is needed the rumour mills are touting Shane Jones as a possible successor to Winston. Oh deary me - that would be diabolical if that happened although the 'middle' would probably love it - I'd rather have Ron Mark but time will tell.

The reason I think Labour will come to regret the decisions they made around this by-election are because as NZF ascends, I think Labour will descend. NZF are not going to get Green Party votes. They may get National Party votes but those votes are 'centre' votes - they wobble, they move. NZF are going to muscle into the 'middle' and they will take votes from both Labour and National but more from Labour I think, notwithstanding the relatively good start by Andrew Little - Labour's leader. The problem for him is that perception is reality. No more moral high ground over deals - even though this wasn't a deal, National have successfully spun it as one, the media have agreed. Another reason that Labour will descend is that it still is hanging on to so much deadwood that unless those people leave the Party is tainted - not just by Rogernomics but also the Clark years - those 9 years seem a long time ago now.

Anyway that is what I think about all that.

I've also taken a 2 week break from The Standard as a silent protest against Stephanie's ban on Murray. I like Murray and I like Stephanie's posts and I just feel that the ban was unnecessary. I do not feel it was a gender issue - it was just a bad call - although I can understand why Stephanie thinks it was. I respect The Standard authors and I didn't want to protest to them - that is inappropriate - but I did want to make a point and I did want to choose. In the past I have defended Stephanie because I have felt that she has received gender bias comments. I just don't think this was the situation in this case although I have to say some subsequent comments there have been offensive to me and sexist. So kia kaha Stephanie and see you in 2 weeks The Standard.

adversity binds us together

I have not really been too interested in who the next leader of the labour party will be – shearer of cunliffe. Both too similar for me but it has been interesting watching the twisting and turning I suppose, following the memes and the propaganda. The leadership of the Māori Party is also under review – who would have thought so soon after the voters have just spoken. It makes a mockery of the whole process and shows the personal issues relating to Hone’s departure because just who do you think would have won between Hone and Te Ururoa. Tim at Tumeke is of the same view. The coyness of Te Ururoa is not needed – he is the only other party MP who isn’t the co-leader – who does he think is going to get the role? So he will get to play with the big boys as a minister outside cabinet, but what will Pita do? The Māori Party say they are bringing out the new faces but I can’t see it and Tariana will retire this term too. So a heavy load for Te Ururoa to carry – I don’t wish him ill-will but I am not confident that the burden is carryable, still good luck to him.

I think Mana is in a good position to build the kaupapa and support. Hone is in parliament and can raise issues. The issues will have supporters from most parties and from the community. As the situation for people becomes much worse than it is now, they will look for someone with solutions to their real problems and Hone and Mana will be offering solutions and talking about the real issues. On one hand I feel sad about the hardships to come and on the other I feel optimism. Adversity binds people together. And we will need to bind together, as whānau, as communities, as people to ensure everyone is looked after.

I am looking forward to seeing the Greens make an impact. There are major environmental issues that the gnats want to go hard on, including mining and exploitation of our resources. The Greens will be holding the line and I wish them well. We need them to be strong and true.

Winston will be very annoying for the gnats and that will be good although I can never really trust or like him. And for the gnats and john key – a bit of a honeymoon period of congratulations, and then back into their agenda. This election has set this country on a dangerous course.

leaders leading

I watched most of the minor leaders debate tonight and it was good - in terms of the fakery of politics and the media anyway. Hone was superb - what a rangatira he is, I am very proud to support Hone and Mana - they are our hope. Winston was good too, at his rousing best with the best steely glint in the business. Tariana was pretty good and spoke well but got a bit rattled by Hone. I was interested to hear her say that they wouldn't go into coalition with Act - but then r0b on the standard clarified that she means they aren't in one now, even though both Act and the Māori Party are in coalition with National - go figure.

Big realisation for me - i am still angry at tariana for what has happened and i know this because when i watch her it is like watching a loved relative. I am angry because i still care but my anger is my stuff and it's heart stuff and disappointment stuff.

The election is 10 days away - get people enrolled and make sure you are - we have a new political movement to get into the house.

going to a happy place

Hone said he would resign from parliment and force a by-election and he has. That is integrity and bodes well for the Mana Party. They have the numbers and all the naysayers and poo-pooers are wrong - the support is there. It's time to get off the fence and get involved - here is the membership form - come and be a part of history.

For the record i think Hone will win big in the by-election because he is back to what he does best - talking and connecting with people. He will really shine in this campaign and as he does, his enemies will get more and more desperate - expect some real slime to come out - all to no avail though. Hone represents the people and they know it. 

Labour's Kelvin Davis will come a long way second and whatever his vote, his team will talk it up as some victory - probably because of the close win over the maori party candidate. Yes they will split the opposition to Hone vote and cancel each other out. I would have prefered labour to not stand a candidate for similar reasons to Eddie's excellent post on The Standard. 

The maori party must be really concerned and they have good reason - they have had so many chances to listen but they stubbornly refuse to conceed, that is now set in play and their fate is sealed.They also have something else very serious for them to consider - their big friend mr key is starting to hit some very soft sand and he has a lot more to get through before the election. Brash will irritate him and ACT will start polling and labour will get some hits in. His thin persona will crack as the brand is eroded piece by piece - we have already seen how vacuous he is in this excerpt from a BBC interview  - watch it and cringe (thanks irishbill and danyl). As things get tougher for mr key he will lose interest in his mates in the maori party - ACT will give him the numbers and the maori party will feel like a liability, a distraction, another irritant. 

Especially as in their desperation to show their independence, they will oppose him, and argue with him and not vote with the right team - after all he's given them - bloody cheek, let them save themselves I've got bigger problems to worry about. Another aspect of key is that he is a short timer - a wheeler dealer - not interested in going for a second term especially if the going gets really tough and his nice guy image takes a bashing - which it will as they introduce more and more pain and suffering for those who need support and protection, those who are disadvantaged in our society. The next leader of the gnats might not be so fussed on the maori party.


Can the left stop the right getting back in - maybe, but not with labour the way it is and not with goff there. Imagine this scenario - 

Hone announces a new political party that will focus on social justice and the disadvantaged in society. Values such as protecting the environment and equality are also there as well as a belief in maori self determination. Labour leader Phil Goff issues a statement welcoming this new political initiative that aligns with his party's beliefs and whilst he recognises that there are differences he fully supports and looks forward to his team working with the Mana Party team to fight the injustices and inequality initiated by the current national coalition government.

 Oh wouldn't that have been great, wouldn't that have shown courage and leadership - goff would have gone up in the polls and peoples estimation but no - we did not see that fictional scenario and that is why I only say maybe. I believe labour are going to get decimated this election and the Mana and the Greens will hold the balance of power and temper the worst excesses of the right coalition. Act will be there with the residue of the maori party and Winston will be nipping at their heels, back in the house.


The by-election is important but not as important as the General Election and the Party Vote - that is where the the power is wrestled. Join Mana and let's get the power back for the people.

what have we got

The maori party have said that Hone has broken his agreement, which was for him to stand as an independent, and they have called the truce off, but will stand a candidate against Hone in the by-election? They are having a hui on it. No doubt they have someone ready to go but it was interesting to hear Pem Bird say he was shocked about the by-election - that seems a bit weird.

So what have we got.


The Greens are good and can get into their campaigning - hopefully with a few joint statements with the Mana Party on key issues.


Winston will continue to gain support and he may go for the race card if he feels desperate.


National have Brash to worry about and Winston to some extent - sure they have a fondness for the maori party but how far that goes depends on the polls and probably the RWC. I would like to see them stand a candidate against Hone.


Labour have big issues and I think they are stuffed. As other partys get support i expect goff to trot out some 'race' issues - you know like how maori are privileged and not like real kiwis. It doesn't matter if they stand a candidate because I think their party vote from maori is going to dive big time. They have been living on borrowed time and the generous nature of Māori but that has changed and the bullshit won't work anymore not when the truth is there in all its horrible glory. The Foreshore and Seabed debarcle is not forgotten. But it's funny how the Gods work because now we have two maori parties, a wonderful unintended consequence.


The maori party are now fighting for their political lives and they will fight and that is sad because who are they fighting against? They should stick to their non-aggression agreement but their pride won't let them. Make no mistake it is all very personal now. Could they take the seat from Hone? Anything can happen but i cannot see it - it is all over for the maori party but they don't recognise that. However, I wouldn't have a problem if they kept a couple of seats. Over the next wee while it will be good for them to be there giving Brash some stick but then again, i am sure I heard Pita Sharples say he wouldn't have an issue going into coalition with Brash, so the only stick given will be one to bash maori with.


Brash is bad and he will use the race card at will and the really sad and sick thing is that he will get support from numbers of people who live in this country. Yes some of our fellow citizens really believe that Māori are lessor than them and they will be coming out of their holes to back Brash. Māori are about to recieve a severe thrashing from Brash as he builds his bought party. Luckily Mana and the Greens are there and labour and Winston to some small extent. Even the maori party will get their chance to walk their talk. It will get nasty, these guys have money and are not happy - they aren't making enough money and something has got to be done about that.


The battlefields will be the rights of Māori, the environment and their exploitation of it, and the continued suffering of people disadvantaged within our system. The economy is always there because that is their reason and excuse for everything.


I am optimistic because Brash will alienate people. He will suck a few from the gnats and he will battle with Winston for others. Key's image will gradually erode as more people see how shallow he really is. Goff will continue to act concerned. The maori party will become irrelevant. The Greens will grow and Mana will too. I am optimistic that people will see that an alternative is now available and they will support Mana.

your hand's on fire

I don't like Winston Peters and his party but I do admit he is a savey political player. Chipping away at public awareness - a quote here, a quote there. That seems to me a good plan to get back into parliment. He has many supporters out there and they believe in him and what he says.

Waatea News

Mr Peters says his fellow Ngapuhi has woken up to how little Maori had got in exchange for his party's support for a John Key government, “The UN declaration has not helped one Maori in this country. The home insulation programme has been trialed in two places, Ngapuhi and Ngati Porou, which happen to be the two warmest places where Maori live. Whanau Ora is $20m over four years ... this is really a failed programme when you look at the financials of it and I don’t think the majority of Maori people are going to be fooled by this,” he says.

They are sharp lines and he finishes with subtle humour

Mr Peters says Hone Harawira shouldn't sit by the phone waiting for a call to join New Zealand First.

There is no doubt the key and the gnats are afraid of peters - hell I am too. goff has said he will get into bed with anyone - it could be peters. I cannot conceive of Hone and peters working together - that is just not a goer.

We will see what happens this week with the maori party disciplinary hearing for Hone but the more I mull it over the more I believe being independant may be the best way for Hone to go.

dino-duo dusting off

News that peters and laws may team up again to resurrect the NZFirst beast isn't a worry but it is disturbing. Do we really want to have more of peters and laws style of politics - where they pick on maori and minorities. If you agree with the line that we get the politicians we deserve then we are in real trouble if these two get anywhere near the reins of power.

From Stuff

"Speculation is rife that NZ First leader Winston Peters and his former adviser Michael Laws are to team up again as part of a "relaunch" of the party this year."

It seems time for some new parties to come forth - how about a proper 'left' party or a maori left party to contest the national/maori party seats.