the deluded and the deranged

Danyl at The DimPost cuts to the core with this post about the revised treasury forecast. Already their unrealistic pre-election forecasts have been revised downwards - apparently they have decided to factor in the european economic crisis. As danyl notes the major parties fought the election with these unrealistic projections and that shows the value of all of their promises - vacuous and a waste of time.

Right. So just to recap: Treasury made these very optimistic growth predictions in the 2011 budget, and everyone said they were delusional. But Treasury stood by their forecasts, and a month out from the election they repeated their insanely optimistic outlook in the PREFU.

The government and opposition parties based all of their fiscal policies on the Treasury forecasts. Both main parties claimed they’d get the country back into surplus in a few years, because of all the additional revenue from all that economic growth. Jobs weren’t a big topic of debate in this election, because Treasury promised us that all the growth would create 170,000 new jobs!

Now here we are, just over a week after the election and whaddya know? Treasury has announced they were too optimistic. Growth is going to be less than they said it would a month ago – even though nothing substantive has changed since then. The European crisis didn’t just emerge on Sunday the 27th.

 All very true and this is what john keys says

Stuff

'Forecasts are wonderful things and they are a prediction of what may or may not occur. We are the government and so we will get on and run the operation as best we can ... yup, it might all go to hell in a handbasket and if it does we'll manage it. ''But at the moment we are more confident than others.'' The Government is committed to getting the books back to surplus in 2014/15.

''If there is some catastrophe in Europe and the place melts down, that changes the global economic outlook, there are always things that are beyond our control. But we are totally committed to trying to get back to surplus,'' he said.

How exactly key will manage everything going to hell in a handbasket is not known, probably the same way he deals with everything else - smile and spin. Same with dealing with the catastrophe of the global economic collapse - she'll be right mate - have a beer. Is this responsible government? Is this what we want or need? Apparently the answer is yes, based on the election. This really is the deluded leading the deranged.

Hattip - DimPost

adversity binds us together

I have not really been too interested in who the next leader of the labour party will be – shearer of cunliffe. Both too similar for me but it has been interesting watching the twisting and turning I suppose, following the memes and the propaganda. The leadership of the Māori Party is also under review – who would have thought so soon after the voters have just spoken. It makes a mockery of the whole process and shows the personal issues relating to Hone’s departure because just who do you think would have won between Hone and Te Ururoa. Tim at Tumeke is of the same view. The coyness of Te Ururoa is not needed – he is the only other party MP who isn’t the co-leader – who does he think is going to get the role? So he will get to play with the big boys as a minister outside cabinet, but what will Pita do? The Māori Party say they are bringing out the new faces but I can’t see it and Tariana will retire this term too. So a heavy load for Te Ururoa to carry – I don’t wish him ill-will but I am not confident that the burden is carryable, still good luck to him.

I think Mana is in a good position to build the kaupapa and support. Hone is in parliament and can raise issues. The issues will have supporters from most parties and from the community. As the situation for people becomes much worse than it is now, they will look for someone with solutions to their real problems and Hone and Mana will be offering solutions and talking about the real issues. On one hand I feel sad about the hardships to come and on the other I feel optimism. Adversity binds people together. And we will need to bind together, as whānau, as communities, as people to ensure everyone is looked after.

I am looking forward to seeing the Greens make an impact. There are major environmental issues that the gnats want to go hard on, including mining and exploitation of our resources. The Greens will be holding the line and I wish them well. We need them to be strong and true.

Winston will be very annoying for the gnats and that will be good although I can never really trust or like him. And for the gnats and john key – a bit of a honeymoon period of congratulations, and then back into their agenda. This election has set this country on a dangerous course.

some right some wrong

Well the people have spoken

My predictions and how they turned out

My pick		What happened	MP’s
ACT gone	Wrong	Banks elected in Epsom, 1.2% Party vote	1 MP
United Future gone	Wrong	Dunne elected, below 1% Party vote	1 MP
NZF and Winston back 6%	Correct	6.8% Party vote	8 MP’s
Greens 13%	Mostly correct	10.6% Party vote	13 MP’s
Labour 28%	Correct	27.1% Party vote	34 MP’s
National 47%	Correct	48% Party vote	60 MP’s
Maori 2% (3 electorate)	Correct	1.4% Party vote	3 MP’s
Mana 4% (2 electorate)	Wrong	1% Party vote	1 MP

So I picked part of the mood but overestimated how much influence Mana could exert for a brand new political movement.

The fact that goff didn’t resign on the night says everything about him – still in denial, still delusional. All of the deadwood Labour caucus should resign and give the party a chance to rebuild and get some credibility.

Key has got enough to govern and it doesn’t matter if the Māori Party vote with him or not – but they will.

I am very happy for the Greens – 13 MP’s that is amazing and will really make a difference – but the numbers are against them and we must remember that the agenda of National is very destructive indeed.

Go after beneficiaries and solo parents

Sell our assets

Mine and exploit our land and water

And so much more – I’m afraid we are in for a very bad time, a horrible time and 48% of people that voted, voted for it.

What to do?

What we always do, rebuild our strength and then go forth into the battle to fight for the rights of the oppressed and disadvantaged, to fight for equality and fairness, to fight for community and cooperation. That we will fight is a given – rest now friends, for your strength will be soon enough be called upon.

holding the heat

I've talked about my voting intentions before - I am going to give both my votes to Mana and I'll also be voting for MMP. It may sound strange but I don't really care what happens at the election - whatever the result - that is what we will deal with. If people vote for john key and the right wing policies - it won't surprise me, after all I live in this colonised country and I know the mentality of the people - that is why i blog.

So I'm not too attached to the result - the type of policies that I want take time to bring to fruition and they are resisted by the powers that be at every turn - ho hum - that is the reality.

My prediction

ACT gone
United Future gone
NZF and Winston back 6%
Greens 13%
Labour 28%
National 47%
Maori 2% (3 electorate)
Mana 4% (2 electorate)

who governs is anyones guess but it will be interesting to watch the machinations as that poisoned chalice bounces around like a hot potato.

their swords are sharp

Maps has some awesome posts up at the moment and this one which outlines a discussion between Labour candidate Carmel Sepuloni and Maps, was especially interesting.

Carmel, who had parked a car emblazoned with campaign slogans beside the cafe, was initially very friendly, asking me about myself and about my voting intentions. When I went beyond pleasantries, though, and began to ask some questions about Labour's policies and election strategy, she quickly became defensive. Although Carmel talked with me for five or so minutes, she asked me not to repeat some of the things she said. This request seemed to me very odd: we were talking, after all, about the details of a general election campaign, not about some sensational murder trial or international spy ring.

and for some humour Rob Guyton is constantly exercising his wicked sense of that quality and this post from him, entitled "this man suffers from worms" is a good example. His blog is aways interesting and offers strong green perspectives - plus that sense of humour.

i am a son of my mother

I've been away for a few days driving trucks down country. The highlight was catching up with mum, cooking her a big pot of dahl, discussing the election and hearing that Mana will be getting two ticks from her in South Dunedin.

like mother like son

leaders leading

I watched most of the minor leaders debate tonight and it was good - in terms of the fakery of politics and the media anyway. Hone was superb - what a rangatira he is, I am very proud to support Hone and Mana - they are our hope. Winston was good too, at his rousing best with the best steely glint in the business. Tariana was pretty good and spoke well but got a bit rattled by Hone. I was interested to hear her say that they wouldn't go into coalition with Act - but then r0b on the standard clarified that she means they aren't in one now, even though both Act and the Māori Party are in coalition with National - go figure.

Big realisation for me - i am still angry at tariana for what has happened and i know this because when i watch her it is like watching a loved relative. I am angry because i still care but my anger is my stuff and it's heart stuff and disappointment stuff.

The election is 10 days away - get people enrolled and make sure you are - we have a new political movement to get into the house.

the keycup runneth over

I thought the teacup incident would die down as the spin merchants made it about privacy rights but I was wrong - this is now the big election angle for the left. The latest walkout by key will not go down well I think, his smarmy lies are not believed as easily, he has lost some of his political lustre as his true qualities come to the fore. key apparently said some smartarse comments about brash and the elderly and all of the opposition parties sense blood. They sense it because it is there - they hung everything on key but the forgot one thing - the man himself.

goff has a real opportunity now to assist key in losing it on camera at the last leaders debate. Forget economics and all of the bullshit and focus on credibility, needle him, provoke him and laugh at him and then watch the fireworks - they may not come but it will be fun anyway and what have you got to lose goff - not much.

flailing banks

Epsom - well that is a big joke now isn't it, now that key has had his cup of tea with banks. it doesn't matter if it is called strategic or tactical voting there is something not quite right about it. Perhaps I wouldn't be so down on it if Hone and Pita had sorted out some of the same. I cannot understand anyone taking ACT seriously i mean, come on, look at them - brash, banks WTF - sorry I just cannot take them seriously but maybe banks will get in and his brand of nastiness will once again enter parliament - remember he has been a cabinet minister, a senior minister and then look at this -



it shows what sort of person banks is and he is the type of person who generalises about ethnicities to create fear and score political points - a racist and lowlife.

Hattip The Standard

Can Māori represent non-Māori

One of the reasons I have decided to keep on blogging is that I cannot find hardly any site discussing the election from a non labour/gnat viewpoint - notwithstanding the greens of course. The usually interesting Standard site is now overrun by newbie labour supporters barking every nanosecond about how great labours new campaign is, how goff won the debate by losing it and so on. I don't even bother with the right blogs. I'm looking forward to some of our great Māori blogs offering up some good debate and insight - we need it and we want it. 


The question raised by the post before this one is important - can non-Māori represent Māori? Does it matter? Can Māori represent non-Māori - may be an even better way to frame it. The Mana Party represents both Māori and non-Māori - the Māori Party says that they only represent Māori. Do they really? What about the F&S Act - did they represent Māori then?

What do you think and why do you think it?  

Thanks Jacque for getting me thinking about this issue.